When the Portland Trail Blazers traded for Deni Avdija, the vision was already in place.
Some thought that including multiple draft picks, in addition to Malcolm Brogdon, was pricey. But swapping out a point guard on the wrong side of 30 for a 6’9”, 23-year-old forward was a step in the right direction.
And as it turned out, Avdija’s emergence proved nothing less than critical for Portland’s current evolution.
Ahead of his second year with the team, betting markets are pointing toward an official Avdija coming-out party. SportsBetting.ag has the Blazers’ forward as the early frontrunner for the 2026 NBA Most Improved Player award (+800). And it’s easy to see why.
The Most Improved Player market is often reserved for young stars eyeing an All-Star leap. That, or it’s for former lottery picks finally putting it all together.
Avdija, a now-24-year-old, former No. 9 pick, just might fall into both categories.
After arriving in Portland, Avdija blossomed. Playing heavier minutes and in a freer offensive system, the 6’9″ forward showcased a more complete game than he ever did with the Washington Wizards, as his ball-handling grew more confident, his court vision began to pop. His transition game stood out among the elites.
The numbers also backed up the eye test. In 2024-25, Avdija posted career highs nearly across the board, averaging 16.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game. He also presented as a go-to defender at times, often taking the toughest wing assignment and switching between multiple positions.
As for total offensive usage, Avdija set a personal high Usage Percentage this past season, and he ranked third among rotation Trail Blazers behind only Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons.
Simons, of course, is now out of the equation. As is Deandre Ayton and his 18.9 shot attempts per night.
In theory, this creates more opportunities for Avdija to handle the ball. But Jrue Holiday is in via the Simons trade, and the hope is that both Sharpe and Scoot Henderson will take enough of a step forward.
Sharpe and Scoot, by the way, are also listed on MIP odds. Both currently sit at +2000 to win the award, tying them with Amen Thompson, Brandon Miller, and Jaden Ivey in a five-way tie for fifth-best odds.
If either or both of Shaedon and Scoot really break out, that will create a healthy competition for the rock. And Avdija, in that case, may see the ball in his hands less, at least in half-court scenarios.
All that said, in this world, where the guards are growing into go-to options, it also opens up catch-and-shoot opportunities for Avdija after his three-point efficiency dipped ever so slightly to 36.5 percent a year ago.
But of course, roster makeup aside, stars find ways to shine in any situation. At 24, Avdija is entering his prime. And he’s the same age CJ McCollum was when he won MIP back in 2016.
The list of Blazers, by the way, to win Most Improved Player isn’t long, but it’s impressive. CJ took the honor after jumping from rotation player to borderline All-Star. Zach Randolph won it in 2004 while establishing himself as a walking double-double. Back in 1988, it was Kevin Duckworth who claimed the award after anchoring the paint during one of the franchise’s surges.
If Avdija joins that group, it will speak volumes not just about his development, but about the direction this new Portland era is heading.
That’s a big deal for both parties. And if it happens, it’ll be more proof that the price was always right to trade for one of the NBA’s up-and-coming stars.
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