And now, onto the fun Part (2)!
Well, it’s fun if you really dig the NBA and Trail Blazers offseason. For me, it’s less of a toss-up between the offseason and the season. I clearly lean on the cane that is the offseason, with the draft being the pinnacle.
Perhaps not as fun for you if you were hoping I’d weigh in on ‘Who’ the Blazers should draft. While I do have some thoughts regarding a couple of players, this article will focus more on ‘What’ I would like to see from the Portland Trail Blazers in terms of their approach to this ‘Weak’ draft.
I will lead with my thoughts about a couple of this draft’s prospects. But since this is not the nature of the article, I’ll limit myself to my strongest.
Alex Sarr | Perth Wildcats (Australia) | PF/C | Height: 7-1
I find a lot of irony in consensus regarding any prospect in this ‘Weak’ draft. And yet, in the case of Sarr, that is precisely what we have: ironic consensus. He was found to be the most common #1 overall pick (scoring a 10 out of 10) in NBA.com’s Consensus Mock Draft, which is a survey of “the [10] best mock drafts around the web” (their words, not mine, hence the quotations).
In other words, all ten mock drafts surveyed have Alex Sarr selected 1st overall.
With the scrutiny that comes with being a #1 overall pick (& this draft being ‘weak’ doesn’t lessen this associated pressure), there are two boxes Sarr would need to check for me:
- Box[-&-]1: mental fortitude (how deeply rooted is his Confidence?) – will he be able to 1) block out the noise & 2) respond productively to falling short of expectations? I would want to get a great feel for how he’s going to handle failure. The primary reason is how quick, particularly in this social media age, people are to slap the bust label on #1 overall picks.
- Box 2: Alex Sarr damn well better has a maniacal work ethic. Otherwise, he will be more bust than boom. This is the key to unlocking whatever upside he may have.
Despite having won the draft lottery, the odds ARE NOT forever in the Atlanta Hawks’ (or in any other team’s) favor in this ‘Weak’ draft, as was laid out in Part 1. So, if I’m Atlanta, and I can’t confidently check both of these boxes, then I can’t trade down fast enough. I’d be more than happy to let someone else place such a big bet on Sarr’s upside.
[Non-breaking Breaking News Update: there has been a draft-related development, albeit of the not-at-all surprising variety given this is a ‘Weak’ draft:
Donovan Clingan | Connecticut | C | Height: 7-2
With Clingan, you have to start with his shot-blocking prowess and, by extension (quite literally) his elite measurables: “7-foot-3 in shoes with a nearly 7-foot-7 wingspan, giv[ing]him a unique physical [paint]presence.” What intrigues me most, however, is his passing acumen, as expounded upon by Sam Vecenie of The Athletic:
“[Donovan] Clingan is a legitimate passer with awesome vision for a center. He’s comfortable running dribble-handoff actions at the top of the key but can also reject them if they’re getting overplayed and just try to make a pass himself. He averaged nearly two assists per game over his final 18 games and had a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.”
The A/TO ratio is good even for a lead guard, let alone (as some have argued) a plodding center. This dovetails nicely into the primary question re: Clingan – will he be able to guard in space? If not, he’s looking at a much more limited role at the next level.
If I had a ‘Guy’ in this draft, it would be Donovan Clingan. But (& there is a But, as there is with every prospect in this draft, with none being a slam-dunk/can’t miss), Clingan is NOT someone I would pound the table for. By contrast, I had a much stronger affinity for Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson in the lead-up to their respective drafts. For them, as my Brother Travis can attest, I was pounding the hell out of the table. I was/am a big believer in both of their potential.
Don’t get me wrong, I really like me some Donovan Clingan. I just like him a lot more within a given pick range due primarily to injury concerns. Could he be the Rudy Gobert to come out of this draft? Maybe, but I’m a lot more comfortable with his other High-end Comp: late-career Brook Lopez. And yet even this is dependent on Clingan adding a 3-point shot to his repertoire, which feels like a 9’7 standing-reach (his, not mine), with him being a career 55.8% free throw shooter. This leaves us with his Low-end Comp of Walker Kessler, which I buy hook, line, and sinker.
And just where am I buying Donovan Clingan, you ask?
Beginning with the first of Portland’s two 1st round picks, lucky #7. The odds WOULD BE forever in the Trail Blazers’ favor if he were to fall to them at 7. What I wouldn’t do, as much as I like some Clingan (especially for the Blazers), is try and manufacture my own odds by trading up for him.
With the table now being set by this “Most Excellent [Thought] Adventure,” I mean segue (sorry Bill & Ted), onto the Rules of Engagement.
[Brief programming note: these are not hard/fast rules. Rather, mere guidelines for the Portland Trail Blazers to maximize their draft return]
Rule No. 1 | Let The Draft Come To You
The beauty of the why for Rule No. 1 is in its simplicity. Even if Portland doesn’t hit paydirt by having Clingan fall into their lap at #7, the Trail Blazers will still have their pick of the litter. They will still be able to choose between a few players who have at least been evaluated as candidates to be selected 1st overall or have the potential to be best-in-class.
Jeremy Woo of ESPN, as part of his Making the case for selecting [fill-in-the-blank] at No. 1 series, made his case for two players expected to be available at #7, per NBA.com’s Consensus Mock Draft:
To this mix you could also add a young (he doesn’t turn 19 until August) and fast rising international prospect, who Colin Ward-Henninger of CBS Sports, dedicated a whole article to: Meet Tidjane Salaun, the French prospect who could end up being the best player in the class.
Of particular interest to me is that Salaun seems to check 3 really important boxes:
- Potential
“[H]as virtually unlimited potential as a 6-foot-9, 200-pound wing with a sweet shooting stroke and elastic athleticism. He averaged 14 points, six rebounds, and two steals per 36 minutes while coming on strong toward the end of the season for Cholet” [a team in France’s top division].
2. Confidence
“‘The important point to mention about Tidjane is his confidence,’ Quintard [a French journalist who covered Salaun]told CBS Sports. ‘He can miss three shots, but he will make the next one. He has 100% confidence in his ability. He’s very joyful.’”
3. Determination/Leadership
“The scale and speed of his improvement should be bolstered by his determination, which he’s already displayed at such a young age. After a playoff loss to Paris, Salaun — at 18 years old — called out teammates who he didn’t feel were bringing the necessary energy.
“‘For me, it’s a kind of leadership to say that in front of the media,’ Quintard told CBS Sports. ‘I think it’s somebody who’s confident in his qualities and abilities.’”
Rule No. 2 (A Close Cousin of Rule No. 1) | Do NOT Trade Up For A Top-6 Pick
Let someone else chase their tail in this ‘Weak’ draft with longer odds, much like the Jazz did in 2013. This “dose of perspective” is brought to us by Bill Oram of The Oregonian/Oregonlive.com:
“I covered the Utah Jazz in 2013 when they entered that June’s draft with the No. 14 and 21 picks… [Had they not succeeded in trading these picks for the 9th pick, Utah was] simply [going to]use the picks [14 & 21] on a pair of talented but incredibly raw international players…
“One a Greek forward and the other a French center…
“Yes, they drafted Trey Burke instead of leaving the first round with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Rudy Gobert.”
O-U-C-H!
Some of the sting was taken out of this, shall we say, miscalculation when the Jazz traded back into the 1st round and picked Rudy Gobert at 27. Still!
A similar lesson can also be learned from the Blazers’ own not-too-distant draft history, although not nearly as dramatic. Let’s rewind the tape back to 2017.
In the draft that year the Portland Trail Blazers had three 1st round picks (#s 15, 20, & 27). They traded 15 & 20 for the 10th pick and selected Zach Collins. Given Portland had traded up, they could’ve done so for Donovan Mitchell instead, picked 13th by the Utah Jazz.
Had they just stayed put at 15 & 20, the Trail Blazers could’ve had a Pick-2 from among John Collins, selected at 19 by the Atlanta Hawks, Jarrett Allen, picked 22nd by the Brooklyn Nets, or OG Anunoby, selected at 23 by the Toronto Raptors.
Again, o-u-c-h, just the lower-case version!
And I won’t even add insult to injury by listing who was picked after Caleb Swanigan at 27. You, however, are welcome to look this up yourself. Here is what remained of Round 1. And Round 2.
Rule No. 3 (A 2nd Cousin of Rule No. 2) | Take Every Available Bite from This Draft Apple (Take All Four of Your Swings)
In addition to the 7th and 14th picks, the Blazers also have two high 2nd round picks (34 & 40), bringing their total to four.
In a ‘Weak’ draft, it just makes sense to improve your long odds by giving yourself more chances at coming away with an All-Star. Since there is considerably less certainty about who the All-Stars will be in this draft, much like in 2013, logic would dictate the Portland Trail Blazers use all four of their draft picks.
I mean, why would Portland NOT want to have four chances at landing a player of the potential ilk of Giannis, Gobert, or even Victor Oladipo, who are All-World, All-NBA, and All-Star players, respectively?
While these 3 Rules are not set in stone, I do think they collectively give the Trail Blazers the best chance of landing the All-Star they covet. To come away with one would be stellar. To come away with two, as the Jazz could have in 2013, would rank as a Draft Coup. Since I’m greedy, I’ll be hoping for the latter!
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