Autzen Stadium has hosted its fair share of heavyweight showdowns, but Saturday’s tilt between No. 8 Oregon and No. 17 USC might be the most consequential of the Dan Lanning era. With the regular season nearing its final turn and College Football Playoff stakes hanging by a thread, the Ducks and Trojans collide in a nationally televised Big Ten showdown, complete with CBS’s spotlight and ESPN’s College GameDay rolling into Eugene for the second time this season. Kickoff is set for 12:30PM, and the margin for error is razor thin: win and stay firmly in the playoff chase, lose and risk sliding into spoiler territory by Thanksgiving weekend.
Oregon enters at 9–1 after dismantling Minnesota 42–13 in a performance that flashed both their defensive dominance and offensive versatility. The Ducks sit No. 3 in ESPN’s FPI and feature a top-10 scoring offense (39.0 PPG) balanced by a suffocating defense allowing just 13.7 points per game. Their pass defense, No. 1 in the FBS at 127.3 yards allowed, has been the backbone. Still, inconsistencies linger: a surprising home loss to Indiana and two recent outings under 21 points keep questions alive about their ability to sustain rhythm for four quarters.
USC arrives at 8–2 on a three-game heater, most recently a gritty 26–21 comeback over ranked Iowa. The Trojans remain explosive, averaging 38.2 points and nearly 489 yards per contest, and sit inside the FPI top 10. But their issues stopping the run persist, as Notre Dame and Illinois both exploited major gaps in the front seven.
Oddsmakers like Oregon, setting the Ducks as 9.5-point favorites with a moneyline around -335 and a total hovering near 59.5. Lanning and his staff benefit from an extra prep day after Minnesota, giving them more time to decode Lincoln Riley’s tendencies.
Matchups to Watch
USC passing attack vs. Oregon’s secondary:
Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava is playing the best football of his career, with 2,868 yards, 18 touchdowns, and only six interceptions, and he has topped 234 passing yards in most starts. His chemistry with receivers Makai Lemon (1,090 yards, eight TDs) and Ja’Kobi Lane makes USC dangerous from anywhere on the field. But they now face the nation’s toughest pass defense, a Ducks unit that has erased big plays all season. If Maiava finds seams, USC has a real upset path; if he doesn’t, Oregon’s front, featuring Bryce Boettcher (81 tackles), Teitum Tuioti (5.5 sacks), and a deep rotation, could feast.
Oregon run game vs. USC run defense:
This could be the deciding factor. USC ranks 126th in rushing success rate allowed, and Oregon leads the nation in EPA per rush. Noah Whittington (623 yards, 8.2 YPC, five TDs) spearheads a relentless ground attack capable of controlling tempo. Tight end Kenyon Sadiq, fresh off an eight-catch, 96-yard performance, adds another layer for freshman quarterback Dante Moore, who is completing 72.8% of his throws with 21 touchdowns and just four picks, including a program-record 90% completion day against Minnesota.
USC’s defense has tightened lately. Four of its last five opponents have been held to 21 points or fewer, but stars like linebacker Eric Gentry (64 tackles) and ball-hawking safety Bishop Fitzgerald (five interceptions) must be game-changers inside the red zone, where the Trojans rank third nationally.
Third-down execution:
Both teams rank top-15 in third-down conversions, and this game could hinge on one or two extended drives. USC running back King Miller (719 yards, five TDs) may be the key to maintaining balance if Oregon’s secondary forces USC into predictable passing downs.
Prediction
Expect a competitive game through three quarters before Oregon’s depth, crowd, and defensive edge start to tilt the field. With an extra prep day and clear advantages in the trenches, the Ducks should have enough to pull away late.
Oregon 34, USC 24 — Ducks cover, and the under hits. But if Maiava catches fire and Oregon’s offense hits another lull, USC absolutely has the firepower to spoil Oregon’s playoff bid.
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