As the leaves turn and the Pacific Northwest chill sets in, No. 6 Oregon (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) welcomes Wisconsin (2-5, 0-4 Big Ten) to Autzen Stadium this Saturday for a Week 9 clash that, on paper, looks like a rout waiting to happen. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. PT on FS1, marking the Ducks’ return home after a dominant road win and the Badgers’ desperate bid to snap a brutal five-game skid. But if last year’s nail-biter in Madison taught us anything, it’s that these cross-country Big Ten newcomers can produce unexpected fireworks—even if the betting lines scream otherwise.
Oregon enters as a colossal favorite, with spreads ranging from 32.5 to 34.5 points across sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings. The over/under hovers around 44.5 to 46.5, reflecting expectations of a Ducks blowout tempered by Wisconsin’s stingy (if beleaguered) defense. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Badgers just a 2.8% chance of pulling off the upset, but stranger things have happened in college football’s chaotic 2025 season.
The Preview: High-Flying Ducks Meet a Grounded Badger Squad
Oregon is rolling after a 56-10 demolition of Rutgers, showcasing the explosive offense that’s become their hallmark under head coach Dan Lanning. Sophomore quarterback Dante Moore has been a revelation, throwing for 1,686 yards, 19 touchdowns, and just four interceptions through seven games. In the Rutgers rout, Moore went 15-of-20 for 290 yards and four scores, while running back Noah Whittington added 336 rushing yards on the season (including a team-high four TDs). The Ducks’ ground game is balanced with contributors like Dierre Hill Jr. (329 yards) and Jordan Davison, helping Oregon average 41.7 points per game—third nationally.
Defensively, Oregon ranks second in the Big Ten in pass defense (130.1 yards allowed per game) and third in points allowed (14.4), a remarkable feat after losing nine players to the NFL last offseason. They’ve covered the spread in five of seven games, including blowouts against Montana State (-29.5) and Rutgers (-18.5). Lanning’s squad is eyeing a path back to the College Football Playoff, but another loss could jeopardize that.
Wisconsin, meanwhile, is in freefall under second-year coach Luke Fickell. After a 2-0 start against non-conference foes (Miami-OH and Middle Tennessee), the Badgers have dropped five straight, all by double digits, including back-to-back shutouts: 37-0 to Iowa and 34-0 to No. 1 Ohio State. Their offense ranks a dismal 133rd nationally in scoring (13.3 points per game) and 123rd in passing (161.6 yards per game). Injuries have ravaged the quarterback room—starter Billy Edwards Jr. (knee) is questionable, backup Danny O’Neil (undisclosed) has been limited, and third-stringer Hunter Simmons has struggled, completing just 6-of-12 passes with an interception against Ohio State.
Running back Dilin Jones (300 yards) and receivers Vinny Anthony II (279 yards) and tight end Lance Mason (267 yards) provide some spark, but the Badgers are 2-5 against the spread and have gone under the total in five of seven games. Fickell, facing fan calls for his job, still has athletic director Chris McIntosh’s public support—but a sixth straight loss could crank up the heat.
Head-to-head, Oregon holds a 4-3 edge all-time, including a 16-13 escape in Madison last November. That game saw the Ducks trail 13-6 entering the fourth quarter before rallying, with then-QB Dillon Gabriel throwing for 218 yards and an interception. Wisconsin’s “Jump Around” tradition even inspired Oregon’s comeback dance party. This rematch? Expect a different vibe in raucous Autzen.
Interesting Stats to Chew On
- Explosive vs. Implosive Offenses: Oregon’s 41.7 PPG ranks sixth nationally; Wisconsin’s 13.3 is dead last in the Power Four. The Ducks have scored 50+ points twice this season; the Badgers haven’t topped 24 since Week 2.
- QB Carousel Chaos: Wisconsin has rotated three QBs due to injuries. O’Neil: 61/88, 5 TDs, 5 INTs. Simmons: 383 total yards but 0-3 as a starter with just 10 points scored in those games. Moore, by contrast, is a Big Ten standout with a 72.3% completion rate in his last outing.
- Defensive Disguise Mastery: Wisconsin’s defense, despite the team’s woes, ranks high in disguise and run-stopping, holding opponents to explosive plays sparingly. They limited Oregon to 16 points last year and are top-10 in the Big Ten against the run. Oregon’s D? They’ve allowed over 20 points just once (to Indiana).
- Betting Trends: Oregon is 5-2 ATS; Wisconsin is 2-5. Four of Oregon’s games have gone over; five of Wisconsin’s under. The Ducks are 1-1 at home ATS this year.
- Historical Nuggets: This is Wisconsin’s first road trip to Eugene since 2001 (a 31-28 Oregon win). The Badgers are 0-2 on the road in 2025; Oregon is undefeated at Autzen (3-0).
Prediction: Ducks Dominate, But Spread Looms Large
Oregon’s talent and home-field edge should overwhelm a Wisconsin team that’s been outscored 122-20 in Big Ten play. The Ducks start fast, building a 28-0 halftime lead behind Moore’s arm and a suffocating defense. Wisconsin might muster a late score if a healthy QB emerges, but their offense is too anemic to keep pace.
Final Score: Oregon 42, Wisconsin 10. The Ducks win big but fail to cover the massive spread (under the 46.5 total). It’s a statement for Lanning’s squad, but Fickell’s Badgers show defensive grit in defeat.
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