Under 22.5 points in the first half (-112)
First-half unders in NFL games with totals of 45 points or more have long been one of the most reliable situational bets, and this matchup only strengthens that case. With both quarterbacks making their first Super Bowl appearance, the expectation is for both coaches to install conservative game plans designed to avoid early mistakes rather than chase explosive plays. Both defenses are elite, making a full-game under appealing, but the first half offers a safer entry point before late-game urgency alters the tempo.
There are also clear matchup issues that favor a slow start. New England has struggled on the edges of its offensive line throughout the season, and the Seattle Seahawks thrive at generating pressure off the edge, while Seattle’s primary weakness lies on the interior of their offensive line, where the Patriots’ defensive tackles Milton Williams and Christian Barmore have consistently disrupted opposing fronts, especially in the playoffs. Those trench mismatches are likely to force both offenses into early adjustments, limiting rhythm and efficiency.
Seattle also has little incentive to force the issue, as Sam Darnold has been at his best when operating within structure, and the coaching staff understands that turnovers are the quickest way to lose control of the game. On the other side, rookie Drake Maye will be dealing with consistent pressure from one of the league’s deepest defensive fronts, discouraging aggressive downfield attempts.
Seahawks -4.5 (-110)
Seattle enters the Super Bowl on a nine-game winning streak, powered by a defense that allowed just 17.2 points per game in the regular season and 16.5 in the playoffs. The Seahawks have held opponents to 16 points or fewer nine times this year, a testament to their ability to control games without relying on offensive fireworks. Their defensive front generates consistent pressure without heavy blitzing, allowing the secondary to remain disciplined and limit explosive plays. Against a young quarterback in Drake Maye and a New England Patriots offense built more on efficiency than firepower, that defensive edge is significant. Seattle’s ability to dictate tempo, collapse pockets, and force opponents into long drives has been the foundation of its postseason run.
While the Patriots deserve credit for an impressive season, their path to the Super Bowl has been relatively favorable. New England faced the league’s lowest strength of schedule during the regular season, and its playoff victories came against a struggling Texans offense at home and a Broncos team led by backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham. By contrast, Seattle represents the most complete team the Patriots have faced all year, with no obvious structural weakness. New England’s ongoing issues protecting Maye, particularly on the edge, remain a concern, and the Seahawks are also well positioned to expose the Patriots’ limited perimeter weapons. Kayshon Boutte and Stefon Diggs have been productive, but neither profiles as a player capable of consistently taking over a game against Seattle’s physical, fast secondary.
A strong argument can be made that the Seattle Seahawks hold an edge over the New England Patriots on both sides of the ball, which is what makes this bet so appealing. Seattle’s defense is capable of winning the game without forcing the offense into unnecessary risks, allowing the Seahawks to rely on consistency rather than explosiveness. As long as Sam Darnold protects the football, Seattle should control time of possession, field position, and late-game tempo—key factors for covering a mid-range spread on the biggest stage.
George Holani over 10.5 rushing yards (-112).
With Zach Charbonnet sidelined, George Holani has emerged as Seattle’s clear No. 2 back behind Kenneth Walker III. While Holani is not known for breakaway speed, he runs with patience and decisiveness, traits that fit well in a postseason environment. In the conference championship game, he logged a 34 percent snap share and produced 31 total yards on limited touches. In a Super Bowl setting where Seattle is expected to rotate backs to manage workload and protect a lead, Holani’s role should remain steady. Holani only needs one or two effective carries to secure the over.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 6.5 receptions (-135).
Few receivers in the league are better suited to a controlled, short-area passing game than Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He has become Darnold’s primary safety valve, consistently winning on option routes, crossers, and underneath concepts. Even if New England assigns top corner Christian Gonzalez to shadow him in man coverage, Smith-Njigba’s route precision and spatial awareness make him difficult to neutralize. In high-pressure situations, quarterbacks tend to rely on receivers they trust, and JSN has earned that role throughout the season. In a game expected to feature quick reads and limited downfield risks, his target volume should remain high from the opening drive, giving this prop a strong chance to cash well before the final whistle.
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