As the leaves turn and the air crisps in the Pacific Northwest, Autzen Stadium is gearing up for another electric showdown. On Saturday, Oct. 11, the No. 3 Oregon Ducks (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) host the No. 7 Indiana Hoosiers (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) in what could be the defining game of Week 7. Kickoff is set for 12:30 p.m. PT on CBS, and with ESPN’s College GameDay descending on Eugene for the 13th time, the stakes couldn’t be higher. For Oregon, a convincing win could vault them past No. 1 Ohio State in the polls, especially given the Buckeyes’ lack of top-25 victories so far. For Indiana, it’s a chance to prove Curt Cignetti’s rapid rebuild is no fluke and solidify their spot as a College Football Playoff contender.
This marks just the fourth meeting in the series’ history, with Oregon holding a 2-1 edge. The Ducks won tight affairs in 1963 and 1964, but Indiana stole the last one in 2004, a sloppy 30-24 affair in Eugene marred by seven Oregon turnovers. Fast-forward 21 years, and both teams enter undefeated, boasting explosive offenses and stingy defenses. Oregon slipped from No. 2 to No. 3 after a bye week, while Indiana climbed one spot, but the Ducks remain a powerhouse in the eyes of voters. With Ohio State idle and facing softer competition, a Ducks victory, coupled with their resume boasting two top-10 wins (including a gritty 30-24 double-overtime thriller at then-No. 3 Penn State), could make them the new No. 1 come Sunday.
This game is a clash of styles, talents, and narratives. Oregon’s high-octane attack meets Indiana’s opportunistic defense, and the subplots, from NIL jabs to Heisman hype, add layers of intrigue. Here’s what to watch as Dan Lanning’s Ducks aim to defend their turf in the third top-10 matchup at Autzen in four years.
Things to Watch: Key Matchups and Storylines
- Oregon’s Explosive Offense vs. Indiana’s Disruptive Defense
The Ducks’ attack has been a revelation, averaging 46.6 points and 503.8 yards per game, tops in the Big Ten. Freshman quarterback Dante Moore, a Heisman frontrunner with +500 odds on FanDuel, has dazzled with 1,210 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and just one interception. His poise under pressure was evident against Penn State, where he threw for 248 yards and three scores while being sacked only once all season (thanks to an elite offensive line anchored by junior center Iapani “Poncho” Laloulu). Moore’s favorite target? Fellow freshman wideout Dakorien Moore, who’s hauled in 296 receiving yards. On the ground, freshmen Dierre Hill Jr. (270 yards) and Jordon Davison (seven TDs) have powered a 176-yard rushing effort against PSU’s vaunted front. Indiana’s defense, allowing just 9.6 points and 221.4 yards per game (fifth nationally in scoring defense), will test that. Tied for second in the Big Ten with eight sacks in conference play, the Hoosiers boast linebacker Isaiah Jones (team-high eight tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks) and safety Louis Moore (29 tackles, three interceptions). They bottled up Illinois (holding them to 161 yards and two rushing yards) and limited Iowa to 15 points. Can they disrupt Moore’s rhythm and force turnovers? Oregon’s O-line has allowed only one sack, but Indiana’s 16 tackles for loss in league play could create chaos if they penetrate. - Indiana’s High-Powered Offense vs. Oregon’s Dominant Defense
Indiana’s offense is no slouch, averaging 47.8 points (sixth nationally) and 538.2 yards per game. Cal transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza has been a revelation, completing 73% of his passes for 1,208 yards, 16 TDs, and one INT, plus 102 rushing yards. He’s got weapons: Wideout Elijah Sarratt (31 catches, 412 yards, six TDs) is a physical mismatch nightmare, while running back Roman Hemby (351 yards) leads a four-headed rushing monster averaging 267.8 yards per game (with backups Kaelon Black, Khobie Martin, and Lee Beebe Jr. all over 200 yards). Oregon’s defense, surrendering just 12.2 points and 238.2 yards per game, has been lockdown. Edge rusher Matayo Uiagalelei (four sacks) leads a unit with nine sacks and five interceptions from the secondary. They’ve held opponents to seven points or fewer in the first half of every game and racked up 180 assisted tackles (second in the Big Ten). After containing Penn State’s Drew Allar (137 yards, one INT) and out-rushing their veteran backs, the Ducks should handle Indiana’s ground game. But if Mendoza exploits any lapses, like he did going 21-of-23 for five TDs against Illinois, things could get dicey. - The NIL Elephant in the Room and Coaching Chess Match
Cignetti stirred the pot in April, lumping Oregon with programs like Ohio State and Texas for their “unlimited NIL resources,” which exceed $40 million. Ahead of this matchup, he walked it back, praising Lanning as “one of the most impressive young coaching phenoms” and noting Oregon’s “big, fast, athletic, physical” depth. Lanning, ever the motivator, has turned similar barbs (like Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy’s $40 million jab) into fuel, as evidenced by the Ducks’ 69-3 rout of the Cowboys. Expect Lanning to use this as bulletin-board material. Cignetti’s rebuild has Indiana humming after a CFP appearance last year, but Lanning’s 3-3 record in top-10 games (with wins over Ohio State and UCLA) gives Oregon the edge at home. - Heisman Implications for Dante Moore
ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit called Moore a Heisman candidate but noted the race is “wide open” without defining “big-game” moments yet. A stellar performance against another top-10 foe could solidify Moore’s case; he’s No. 4 nationally in completion percentage (74.6%) and No. 6 in passer rating (183.47). With four games of three-plus TDs already, a win here keeps him ahead of the pack. - Special Teams and Turnovers: The X-Factors
Indiana’s kicker, Nico Radicic, is 5-of-6 on field goals, but their punting has been inconsistent. Oregon’s unit has been solid, but avoiding the 2004 debacle (seven turnovers) is key. The team that wins the turnover battle likely wins the game; both squads have a plus margin, but Autzen’s raucous crowd could force mistakes.
The betting line has narrowed from 13.5-14.5 to 7.5-8.5 in Oregon’s favor, with an over/under of 55.5. Experts lean towards the Ducks, with trends showing Oregon 4-1 ATS lately and Indiana 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games.
Prediction: Oregon 34, Indiana 24
This feels like a statement game for the Ducks. Indiana’s ceiling is high; they demolished Illinois and edged Iowa, but Oregon’s talent, depth, and home-field advantage (6-1 ATS in last seven home games) should prevail. Moore orchestrates a balanced attack, the defense contains Mendoza, and Lanning’s crew pulls away in the second half. A win sends Oregon to No. 1 and keeps its Big Ten title defense on track.
