We’re set for an absolute banger in Atlanta on January 9 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium: undefeated Indiana Hoosiers (14-0) against the Oregon Ducks (13-1) in a College Football Playoff semifinal. This Big Ten rematch has everything – revenge angle, Heisman winner vs. rising star QB, and two elite defenses that just dominated quarterfinals.
Indiana made a massive statement throttling Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl, holding the Tide to 193 total yards. Oregon followed with a defensive masterpiece, blanking Texas Tech 23-0 in the Orange Bowl and forcing four turnovers. Back in October, the Hoosiers won 30-20 in Eugene, controlling the trenches and the clock. Now on neutral turf, can Dan Lanning’s Ducks flip it, or do Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers punch their first-ever ticket to the natty?
Key Season Stats (Through Quarterfinals)
Both teams are top-10 in scoring offense and defense – rare air.
- Scoring Offense: Indiana 41.6 PPG (3rd nationally); Oregon 38.0 PPG (9th)
- Scoring Defense: Indiana 10.3 PPG allowed (2nd); Oregon 15.1 PPG allowed (6th)
- Total Defense: Oregon allows 273.7 YPG (top-10); opponents complete just 49.3% of passes against the Ducks (154.8 passing YPG allowed)
- Rush Defense: Indiana allows ~76 YPG on the ground (3rd nationally, ~3 YPC); Oregon ~3.3 YPC allowed
QB Stats:
- Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza (2025 Heisman winner): 240-of-332 (72.3% completion), 3,172 passing yards, 36 TDs, 6 INTs (184.7 rating); 256 rushing yards, 6 TDs
- Oregon’s Dante Moore: 272-of-373 (72.9% completion), 3,280 passing yards, 28 TDs, 9 INTs (166.7 rating); 184 rushing yards, 2 TDs
In the October meeting: Indiana dominated possession (33:10 vs. 26:50), outgained Oregon 326-267 (111 rushing vs. 81), and sacked Moore six times while forcing two INTs. Mendoza threw for 215 yards and a TD despite a pick-six.
Beefed-Up Matchups to Watch
This is strength vs. strength everywhere – two physical, balanced teams built for January football.
- Indiana’s Run Game vs. Oregon’s Front Seven: The Hoosiers’ ground attack (245+ YPG, top-6 nationally) with Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black wore down Oregon last time (111 yards, controlled clock). Oregon’s run D is stout (low YPC allowed), but Indiana ranks top-10 stopping the run themselves – if the Hoosiers establish early, they shorten the game and keep Moore sidelined.
- Mendoza vs. Oregon’s Secondary (Especially Brandon Finney Jr.): The Heisman winner is ultra-efficient (low INTs, high completion) and mobile. Finney, the freshman ballhawk, had three turnovers vs. Texas Tech. Oregon forces low completion rates (~49%), but Mendoza picked apart defenses all year – can the Ducks force mistakes like the pick-six from October?
- Moore’s Playmaking vs. Indiana’s Pass Rush/Secondary: Moore has big-play weapons (Malik Benson, Kenyon Sadiq) and excels on deep shots. But Indiana’s disruptive front (Mikail Kamara, Aiden Fisher) and coverage (D’Angelo Ponds) suffocated QBs – six sacks on Moore in October, and no opponent threw more than one TD pass against IU all season.
- Third Downs and Turnovers: Indiana edges third-down efficiency and TFLs; both are plus in turnover margin. Linebackers like IU’s Fisher and Oregon’s Bryce Boettcher combined for 24 tackles last meeting – physicality in the middle decides this.
Coach Speak: Mutual Respect with an Edge
From this week’s joint presser:
Dan Lanning on the rematch: “Neither one of us are the same team that you saw earlier in the season… We’ve grown in a lot of different ways, found different strengths.” On lessons from past rematches: “Stick to your process… Double down on what got you here.”
Curt Cignetti on beating a team twice: “It’s hard to beat a really good football team twice… I think it’s more of a psychological edge maybe – the one team that came up a little short has a little added edge.” On Oregon: “Very well coached, good players… Both teams will throw in some wrinkles since that game was a while back.”
Why Indiana Wins: The Metrics Back the Hoosiers
It’s close – revenge motivation, neutral site, Oregon’s peaking D – but the numbers tilt to Indiana repeating.
- Line Dominance Travels: IU controlled the trenches in October (outgained rush, six sacks) and just bullied Alabama (215 rush yards on 50 carries). Oregon struggled running vs. Tech (64 yards) and Indiana’s run D is elite (3rd in YPG allowed).
- Elite Defense + Balance: Hoosiers allow the fewest PPG (10.3) and suffocate opponents – no big plays, force tough situations. Mendoza’s efficiency (36 TDs/6 INTs) avoids mistakes; Oregon’s Moore has 9 picks.
- Proven vs. Elite Competition: IU dismantled a blue-blood in Alabama; Oregon shut out Tech but hasn’t faced this level of balance since the loss to IU.
- Analytics Edge: ESPN gives Indiana ~67% win probability; lines sit at IU -4 to -4.5 (O/U ~47-48).
Prediction: Indiana 24, Oregon 17
Hoosiers cover in a gritty, low-scoring battle and advance to make history. Ducks fight hard, but Indiana’s balance and D prove too much again. What’s your take – Ducks get revenge or IU stays perfect?
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