The Portland Trail Blazers have already done the hard part, which is making this game matter again.
Not long ago, the idea of Portland playing meaningful basketball in mid-April felt like wishful thinking, the kind of thing fans say in October before reality shows up and starts throwing bricks. But here we are. The Blazers finished 42-40, grabbed the No. 8 spot, and now head to Phoenix on Tuesday night for the 7-vs-8 play-in game. The Suns went 45-37, earned home court, and are favored by about 4.5 points.
That line makes sense. Phoenix is 25-16 at home. Portland is 18-23 on the road. And while the Blazers closed the regular season with wins over the Clippers and Kings, this is still a young team walking into a high-pressure road game against a veteran group that knows exactly what is at stake.
Still, this does not feel like a game Portland should fear.
The Blazers have spent much of this season proving they are ahead of schedule. They are tougher than people expected, more organized than people expected, and frankly, a lot less annoying than some rebuilding teams that act like “competing hard” is the same thing as actually winning. Portland has defenders. Portland has length. Portland has enough creation to stay in a game. And in a one-game setting, that matters.
If the Blazers are going to pull this off, it starts with turning the game ugly. That is not an insult. That is a compliment. Portland does not need this game to become a track meet. They need it to become a wrestling match in sneakers. They need every Phoenix possession to feel slightly irritating. Make Devin Booker work. Crowd the paint. Contest everything. Force the Suns to feel pressure early, especially if Portland can hang around into the fourth quarter. Phoenix may be the higher seed, but that does not mean Phoenix will be the looser team. Sometimes the favorite plays like the team trying not to screw this up.
Portland also needs a big night from Deni Avdija. He feels like the swing player here. The Suns will get their attention on the obvious names and primary actions, but Avdija is the kind of player who can tilt a game without needing it built around him. If he rebounds, pushes the ball, and finds 20-plus points somewhere along the way, Portland’s upset chances get real in a hurry. Donovan Clingan is another huge piece. If he controls the glass and protects the rim, the Blazers have a way to slow the game down and keep Phoenix from living comfortably around the basket.
The good news for Portland is that the injury report is not a disaster. Jerami Grant remains out, but the Blazers are otherwise relatively intact. Phoenix, meanwhile, has a longer injury list, including Mark Williams, Jordan Goodwin, Collin Gillespie, Jalen Green, and Royce O’Neale.
And yet, I keep coming back to the same thing. Phoenix has the better record. Phoenix has home court. Phoenix has the more proven late-game shot creator. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives the Suns a 60.6% chance to win, which feels about right. Not overwhelming. Not scary. Just enough to make them the safer pick.
So my prediction is this: Portland makes this a real game. The Blazers defend hard, Clingan gives them second chances, and Avdija has one of those nights where he is everywhere. But in the end, Booker makes the biggest shots, Phoenix settles down late, and the Suns survive.
Suns 113, Blazers 108.
That is not a knock on Portland. Honestly, it is the opposite. The fact that this prediction feels slightly rude to make tells you how far the Blazers have come. A few months ago, this would have sounded like a polite formality. Now it feels like a coin flip with consequences. And that is a pretty good sign for where this team is headed, whether they steal this one or have to take the longer road.
Be the first to comment