With only one game remaining in October, the Seattle Kraken have roared to the best start in franchise history. After last night’s 5-4 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Kraken have earned eight wins and 17 points in their first 13 games of the 2026-27 season, both the most in franchise history through 13 games. For reference, last season’s Kraken had a .615 points percentage (PTS%) through 13 games, fewer wins (six), and six combined regulation and overtime losses.
The more important comparison is to the 2022-23 season, when the Kraken qualified for the playoffs for the first and only time in franchise history. That team had seven wins and four regulation losses over the first 13 games but rattled off eight wins between November 8th and December 1st, leading the Western Conference in PTS% (.717 through 23 games) as a result. The Kraken eventually fell off that torrid pace and finished with a wildcard spot. Still, a hot stretch in the second month of the season (including going 6-0 against Pacific Division opponents) set the stage for the franchise’s best season to date.
The Kraken will play seven games against Pacific rivals from November 1st to November 28th, including back-to-back games against the division-leading Edmonton Oilers to close out the month. With four more November games against teams ranked 26th or lower in the league by PTS%, the Kraken could enter their first December game against the Dallas Stars, the first in the division and a contender for the conference lead.
Is that far-fetched? Maybe so, as the Oilers lead the NHL in goals per game and are winning games thanks to their titanic triumvirate of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard, despite a rash of injuries.
The Pacific’s other Stanley Cup contender is the Vegas Golden Knights, who are behind the Oilers by PTS%. While the Kraken and the Oilers face among the league’s easiest remaining schedules, the Golden Knights are closer to the middle of the pack and will only play two teams ranked 27th or lower in PTS% across all of November.
Opponent strength only means so much when each team operates at a different level of control, determining how much they can exploit the softness of their upcoming schedule. Let’s look at how the three Pacific pacesetters are faring at five-on-five over a month of play.
| Statistic | Vegas | Edmonton | Seattle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 54.5% | 46.4% | 45.4% |
| Expected goals | 53.8% | 46.5% | 41.7% |
| Scoring Chances | 51.8% | 49% | 43% |
| High-Danger Chances | 53.3% | 46% | 45.2% |
The numbers suggest that, despite the standings, the Oilers and Kraken are a tier below the Golden Knights in five-on-five play. That admittedly excludes the impact of special teams, goaltending, and finishing talent, but around 75% of any given game is played at even strength and should carry the most weight in analytical discussions.
Still, the Golden Knights aren’t among the league’s elite at five-on-five. They rank inside the top 10 (but not the top five) in shot share and expected goals share. Still, their on-ice results appear far more repeatable over the season than their divisional counterparts.
One thing the Oilers can count on to reverse their five-on-five struggles is the eventual clearing out of their crowded injured list. It currently includes names such as Frederik Andersen, Mattias Janmark, Matthew Savoie, Jason Dickinson, Devon Levi, Mattias Ekholm, and Zach Hyman, each with different degrees of injury.
The Kraken must either adjust their on-ice strategy or improve their roster, or face regression once their lack of control starts to bite them in the behind.
For what it’s worth, outlets such as The Athletic and HockeyStats currently give both the Oilers and Golden Knights a greater than 90% chance of making the playoffs. In comparison, both projection models peg the Kraken at around 25% odds of reaching the postseason despite their better-than-expected start to the campaign.
Jared McCann’s lower-body injury throws a wrench into the Kraken’s playoff hopes, with the franchise’s all-time leader in goals, points, and points per game poised to miss 10 weeks and likely not return until the calendar turns to 2027.
Despite this, the Kraken hold their fortune in their own hands, with a favorable schedule lining up to cement their claim on one of the Pacific Division’s three automatic playoff berths, if not the title outright. Can Lane Lambert’s men keep the ship steady, or will familiar troubles emerge to sink Seattle’s voyage?
Data courtesy of Hockey Stats, MoneyPuck, and the NHL.
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