Seattle Kraken Getting Results Despite Poor Underlying Numbers

With the Seattle Kraken’s 4-3 shootout win over the Detroit Red Wings on Tuesday night, the club improved its record to 6-3-1 (13 points) through the first 10 games of the 2026-27 regular season, good enough to capture one of the Western Conference’s playoff berths and third place in the Pacific Division.

Beyond the win column, the Kraken attack is firing on all cylinders. The team ranks sixth in goals per 60 minutes across all situations (3.63) and second at five-on-five (3.65), behind only the Colorado Avalanche. It’s less than a month into the season, but both marks are Seattle’s highest since the 2022-23 campaign, coincidentally the franchise’s only playoff berth.

Despite the sparkling record and unexpected offensive firepower, the Kraken have been mining wins with less-than-stellar play under the hood, particularly at five-on-five. The concept of puck luck and unsustainability is nothing new in hockey circles, but that doesn’t mean one can’t harp on it when trends emerge.

Kraken Riding Fine Line at Five-on-Five

Despite boasting a 58.7% share of goals, Seattle’s underlying numbers aren’t as peachy. They have accounted for only 48.6% of expected goals (xGF%) and 48.1% of shots (SF%), meaning their finishing is hotter than the numbers suggest in a vacuum.

The Kraken rank third in shot percentage at five-on-five and fourth in all situations (both at 13.8%). For reference, they were converting at a 9.4% clip at five-on-five and 10.7% in all situations, both significantly higher than what we’re seeing heading into late October.

That overperformance has come from six players outperforming their expected goals by 0.5 or more, most notably bottom-six forward Frederick Gaudreau, who posted five goals against 1.3 expected goals (plus-3.7) and ranked third behind only Evan Bouchard (plus-5.3) and Artturi Lehkonen (plus-3.8). On the other end, only two Kraken players lag behind their expected goals tally by 0.5, and none by more than 1.

On the defensive end, the goaltending, and more specifically the often-beleaguered Philipp Grubauer, has been the team’s MVP to date. Before last season, the German netminder had never posted a save percentage (SV%) above .900 or had positive goals saved above expected (GSAx) during his Kraken tenure. Initial afterthought Joey Daccord outperformed him, eventually took the reins as the starter, and earned a five-year, $25 million extension ahead of last season.

In an interesting development, Grubauer has been the better goalie for a full calendar year by every metric, including SV%, GSAx, and goals-against average (GAA). Each value includes the goalie’s leaguewide ranking among 68 qualified goalies (minimum 20 games played since the start of the 2025-26 campaign).

Grubauer has a long way to go to fully rehabilitate his image and game after nearly a half-decade of subpar play in the Kraken crease. Still, he’s made his mark early in the season, despite the team sitting in the bottom half of the league in expected goals and shots allowed per 60 minutes at both five-on-five and across all situations. That’s a difficult environment for goalies to succeed in, but the veteran Grubauer has steadied the ship while Daccord has struggled to live up to his (at that point deserved) payday.

Special Teams Results Not Clouded By Unsustainable Percentages

While fans should be wary of the Kraken maintaining their success at five-on-five due to unsavory numbers under the hood, their success (or lack thereof) on special teams is as it looks on its face.

A power play running at a 21.9% conversion is above average, but not abnormal. The Kraken are hovering around the top 10 in shots and expected goals generated per hour with the man advantage, so their success rate is in line with expectations.

The Kraken’s penalty kill is also in line with expectations at a porous 72.4% (25th), given that the team ranks around the bottom five leaguewide in expected goals and shots conceded per hour while down a man. The goaltenders haven’t helped with a bottom-half SV% on the penalty kill, but the defensive structure hasn’t made their job any easier.

Kraken Still Face Long Road to Playoff Berth

I hate to rain on the parade after an uninspiring offseason, but the Kraken must solidify their systems before regression rears its ugly head, even as their auspicious start has given them some breathing room in the playoff race.

The Athletic currently gives the Kraken a 20% chance of reaching the postseason after nearly a month of play, while HockeyStats has Seattle pegged at 17%. Both outlets projected the team to finish with below 80 points and gave them less than a 15% chance of making the playoffs before the season began, so progress is being made.

If Daccord returns to form and the youth movement continues to bear fruit, the Kraken have no reason not to claim a playoff berth in a turbulent Western Conference.

Data courtesy of Hockey Stats, MoneyPuck, and the NHL. All statistics are score- and venue-adjusted unless noted otherwise.