The opening weekend of the 2026 MLS season came with a bang. Large crowds, global soccer superstars, and, as always in Major League Soccer, a steady stream of goals hitting the back of the net. If Matchday No. 1 is anything to go by, 2026 will follow a familiar script: goals, goals, and then a few more for good measure.
Nine of the opening 15 games finished with over 2.5 goals. Over the last five seasons, MLS hovered around 3.0 goals per game. Last season landed bang on that average. This is a league of goals.
On Matchday 1 specifically:
- 60% of games ended with over 2.5 goals
- 87% featured over 1.5 goals
Only two matches failed to clear that modest 1.5 bar. Vancouver Whitecaps edged Real Salt Lake 1-0, while D.C. United pulled off the weekend’s biggest eyebrow-raiser with a 1-0 win over reigning Supporters’ Shield winners the Philadelphia Union.
Two tight games in a weekend otherwise defined by attacking abandon and, in several cases, poor defensive organization.
Backing the Numbers
If you’re wondering whether I put my money where my mouth is, I did. I turned a modest $5 bet into $7.50 backing over 2.5 goals on a three-fold accumulator. Not enough to buy a new Portland Timbers jersey or even a value meal at McDonald’s, but that’s not the point.
I don’t gamble to make a living. I wager small amounts to test whether my beliefs about the league match reality. In MLS, backing goals usually does. I don’t advise readers to wager on soccer.
This article is in no way supported by betting companies or any other organization connected to bookmakers. However, if you want to advertise, I’ll listen.
The Clean Sheet Paradox
Here’s the caveat and it’s why MLS remains fascinating, of at least another reason it does. Despite the goal glut, seven of the 15 games ended in clean sheets.
The largest margin of victory came in California, where San Diego FC dismantled CF Montreal 5-0 at home. It was an emphatic statement that their attack might be one of the best this season. Anders Dreyer delivered a goal and two assists, immediately entering the early MVP conversation.
Here’s my strong opinion, backed by years of watching this league: MLS teams should stop obsessively shopping in Central and South America and start targeting more Scandinavia and the Low Countries.
Sweden, Norway, Denmark, The Netherlands, and Belgium are ideal for MLS talent. Those leagues more closely resemble MLS in tempo, physicality, and tactical balance.
Players transition faster. They adapt quicker. They produce immediately. Dreyer is just another example.
New Looks, Same Defensive Problems
Several new-look sides stumbled out of the gate. Sporting Kansas City were comfortably beaten 3-0 by San Jose Earthquakes. It was a result that immediately raised questions about defensive cohesion.
Colorado Rapids fell 2-0 to the ever-organized Seattle Sounders. Meanwhile, Houston Dynamo, widely praised for their offseason recruitment, got off to a strong start with a 2-1 win over Chicago Fire.
Even with head coach Ben Olsen, who has carved out a career as MLS’s most consistent .500 coach, Houston looked efficient and organized. If they pair smart recruitment with reliable finishing, they could quietly become one of the Western Conference’s most efficient operators.
Youth, Boldness, and the Only Away Win
The boldest managerial call of the weekend came from New York Red Bulls and their new head coach Michael Bradley.
He started three players aged 17 or younger, and it paid off. Julian Hall scored twice inside 40 minutes, powering the Red Bulls to victory. It was the only away win across the entire matchday. It was a reminder that travel in MLS remains one of the most underrated competitive factors in world soccer.
Distance, climate, altitude, and time zones all play major factors in match outcome. This league stretches across a continent. Home-field advantage is real, and it shows up in the data every season.
Why MLS Produces So Many Goals
So what do we take from all of this? First, the attacking baseline in MLS remains high. League wide parity thanks to the various financial mechanisms, long travel, climate variance, and evolving defensive chemistry early in the season all tilt the league toward goals.
Second, clean sheets aren’t disappearing. They’re just arriving in clusters, often attached to decisive scorelines rather than cagey stalemates. Results like San Diego’s 5-0 win over Montreal show the disparity in the quality between teams.
Third, and most important, MLS is designed to reward attacking talent. High-level attackers receive Designated Player contracts. Defenses are often constructed with solid but league-average professionals. When elite attacking talent faces average defensive depth, the math is simple.
The likes of Son Heung-min or Lionel Messi running at MLS defenders such as Efrain Morales or Ian James is only going to end one way.
My prediction?
Expect plenty of goals per game in MLS, at least until the summer heat settles in and tempo naturally dips.
Until then, MLS remains what it has quietly become over the past five years: One of the most reliably high-scoring leagues in world soccer. If you’re still surprised by that, you haven’t been paying attention.
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