You’re going to hear all week that this is a replay of February 2015. It isn’t.
None of the players who started that game are starting this one. Nearly all of the coaches are different. Even the officials are different. That Super Bowl was played indoors in Arizona. This one will be played outdoors in California. The national anthem performers are different. The halftime show is different. Up is down. Black is white. This game has almost nothing in common with that game beyond the uniforms.
To be unapologetically cliché, this is a whole new ballgame.
If you actually want clues about what this Super Bowl might look like, you’d need to stitch together film from several unrelated games. The closest comparison would be a matchup played in London in 2023, the only known meeting between a Mike Macdonald defense and a Mike Vrabel-coached team, when Baltimore faced Tennessee in Week 6. Even that only gets you part of the way there. Those teams were nothing like these teams. The players were different. The schemes were different. The circumstances were different.
Calling this a rematch is like saying every movie involving the multiverse is the same film. The characters say the same names, but everything else has changed.
To put the timeline into perspective, Patriots quarterback Drake Maye was 12 years old in 2015. Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold was a high school senior preparing to enroll at USC. Mike Vrabel had just finished his first season as Houston’s linebackers coach. Mike Macdonald hadn’t yet turned 30 and was a defensive assistant in Baltimore. Seattle’s oldest active player, Cooper Kupp, was a junior at Eastern Washington. New England’s oldest active player, Morgan Moses, was in his second NFL season.
There is no shared history here.
Macdonald has never called plays against Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Macdonald didn’t begin calling defensive plays until 2022, and McDaniels’ Raiders never faced Baltimore during that span. Macdonald has never called plays against Maye. Patriots defensive coordinator Terrell Williams is calling plays for the first time this season, so there is no precedent for how he and Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak will attack each other. Darnold has never faced a Williams defense in a game that mattered like this.
So forget everything you think you know.
Seattle has been one of the league’s most balanced teams all season, and they’ve raised their level in the playoffs. Their offense is producing fewer yards but scoring more points. Their defense is allowing more yards but fewer points. That’s terrifying considering they already led the league by allowing just 17.2 points per game in the regular season.
New England has adjusted as well. Their offense was third in yards and second in points during the regular season. In the playoffs, they’re gaining about 100 fewer yards and scoring roughly 10 fewer points per game. But their defense has flipped the script, allowing 100 fewer yards and 10 fewer points. The Patriots aren’t as flashy, but they are forcing opponents to execute perfectly while knowing every mistake could be fatal.
All season long, the narrative around New England was that they benefited from an easy schedule and would fold when they faced real competition. So far, that hasn’t happened. They’re undefeated in the playoffs and one win away from a title.
Seattle, meanwhile, spent much of the year being overlooked despite elite defensive play, a capable offense, and wins over quality opponents. The Rams and Eagles were more entertaining for the national media, so now we’re told we should be surprised the Seahawks are here. That narrative should be dead. Seattle earned the NFC’s top seed and survived its own division gauntlet to get here.
Now they get the ultimate prize. A second Lombardi Trophy. And the chance to win it on the field of a team that still represents unfinished business for this fanbase.
Both teams finished the season with the best margin of victory in the league. It should not surprise anyone that they’re facing each other on the sport’s biggest stage.
The Patriots enter as 4.5-point underdogs, with the over-under set at 45.5. That number feels high given these defenses allow a combined 26 points per game, though Super Bowls rarely behave logically. The last time two teams combined for fewer than 45 points was in the final two Super Bowls Tom Brady played, in 2018 and 2020.
The 2018 Super Bowl is particularly interesting. The Rams entered with an explosive offense that slowed in the playoffs, supported by a defense that elevated when it mattered. Sound familiar? On the other side was New England, a team with a strong regular-season offense and a defense that smothered opponents in the postseason. That game ended 13-3, the lowest scoring Super Bowl ever.
This one likely won’t be that extreme, but don’t expect a track meet either.
A more realistic comparison is the 2019 Super Bowl between San Francisco and Kansas City. The 49ers were balanced and physically dominant. The Chiefs were explosive but aggressive on defense. San Francisco led 20-10 entering the fourth quarter before everything unraveled.
There are parallels everywhere, but none of them tell the full story.
Both quarterbacks are already part of rare company just by being here. Sam Darnold becomes only the third quarterback in league history to start a Super Bowl after playing for at least four previous teams. He’ll also be the first Super Bowl starting quarterback who played college football at USC.
Drake Maye will join one of two exclusive clubs. Either second-year quarterbacks who won the Super Bowl, a group that includes Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and Russell Wilson, or second-year quarterbacks who lost it, alongside Dan Marino, Colin Kaepernick, and Joe Burrow.
The weather should not be a factor. Mild conditions, a small chance of rain, nothing that should interfere. No excuses.
I expect Seattle to attack early. They played cautiously at times during the regular season. They haven’t done that in the playoffs. With two weeks to prepare, Macdonald will throw things at Maye that he hasn’t seen yet, and I’m not convinced the Patriots have enough offensive firepower to keep Seattle honest for four quarters.
That doesn’t mean New England is outmatched. Vrabel and Williams will force Darnold to throw into tight windows, and McDaniels knows how to script and score in this game. He was calling plays the last time these uniforms met on this stage.
Still, I think this game tilts quickly.
Prediction:
Seattle opens with a three-and-out. New England marches down the field and takes an early lead on a Rhamondre Stevenson rushing touchdown.
Kubiak responds by leaning into the run game. Kenneth Walker punches in a score. A tipped pass by Ernest Jones IV leads to a Drake Maye interception, setting Seattle up deep in Patriots territory. Darnold capitalizes, throwing touchdown passes to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jake Bobo on back-to-back possessions.
Seattle leads 21-7 at halftime.
New England misses a field goal early in the third quarter. On the ensuing drive, Rashid Shaheed takes a reverse 30 yards for a touchdown. Maye answers with a touchdown to Stefon Diggs, but the damage is done. The teams trade late field goals. Seattle recovers an onside kick inside two minutes.
Darnold takes the final knee.
Final score: Seattle 31, New England 17.
Sam Darnold wins Super Bowl MVP with 250 yards and two touchdowns.
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