The Portland Trail Blazers enter the 2025-26 NBA season with a mix of optimism and uncertainty. Coming off a 36-46 campaign that featured a surprising 23-18 finish in the second half—bolstered by the league’s No. 3 defense during that stretch—the team showed flashes of potential. General Manager Joe Cronin has emphasized progress over immediate results, but offseason moves suggest a push toward competitiveness in a loaded Western Conference. With young talents poised for growth and veteran additions providing guidance (and some complications), the Blazers are at a crossroads: Can they sustain their late-season surge, or was it a mirage fueled by tanking opponents?
Offseason Recap: Bold Trades, Nostalgic Reunions, and Draft Gambles
Portland’s summer was anything but quiet. The most headline-grabbing move was reuniting with franchise legend Damian Lillard, who signed a three-year, $42 million deal using the midlevel exception. However, Lillard, now 35, will miss the entire season recovering from a torn Achilles tendon suffered in the playoffs with Milwaukee. His return is more about mentorship and vibes than on-court impact this year, though it heals old wounds from his 2023 trade and signals long-term intent.
In a swap that raised eyebrows, the Blazers traded 26-year-old scoring guard Anfernee Simons to the Boston Celtics for 35-year-old Jrue Holiday. Initially involving picks, the deal was adjusted to a one-for-one after Holiday’s physical. Holiday brings championship pedigree, defensive tenacity, and playmaking, but his $104 million over three years adds financial weight to a rebuilding squad. Critics question the fit, noting Holiday’s slight efficiency dip last season, while optimists see him as a stabilizer for the young backcourt.
The frontcourt saw changes too: Deandre Ayton agreed to a buyout, saving Portland about $10 million and opening minutes for rookie Donovan Clingan. In the draft, the Blazers traded down from No. 11 to No. 16, acquiring a future first and two seconds, then shocked analysts by selecting 7-foot-1 Chinese center Yang Hansen. Projected as a second-rounder, Hansen impressed in Summer League with 10 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2.3 blocks per game, drawing “Chinese Jokic” comparisons for his passing and post skills. Still, his 1:1 assist-to-turnover ratio highlights rawness.
Key Players and Storylines: Youth Movement Meets Veteran Wisdom
The Blazers’ success hinges on their young core stepping up, particularly in a Western Conference where the top 10 spots are fiercely contested.
- Scoot Henderson (Point Guard, Year 3): The No. 3 pick in 2023 has yet to fully live up to the hype. After averaging 14 points as a rookie, his scoring dipped to 12.7 last season on fewer shots but better efficiency (41.9% FG, 35.4% 3PT). A 39-point explosion against Brooklyn showed his scoring upside, but consistency is key. With Holiday potentially shifting to shooting guard, Henderson gets the keys as primary playmaker. His third year is make-or-break—can he break lines, create in the half-court, and lead a team lacking elite shooters? Coach Chauncey Billups, a Hall of Fame point guard, will demand growth amid inevitable mistakes.
- Shaedon Sharpe (Shooting Guard, Year 4): The athletic No. 7 pick in 2022 leaped to 18.5 points per game last season, ending with three 30-point games in his final five. His tools scream star potential, but he must improve spot-up 3s, draw more fouls, and harness his athleticism defensively. Paired with Henderson, they form an under-23 backcourt with explosive upside, mentored by Holiday and (from the sidelines) Lillard.
- Deni Avdija (Forward, Year 6): Acquired before last season, Avdija posted career highs (16.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.0 steals) and led the team in offensive rating (113.6). His late surge—24.9 points, 10.6 rebounds, 5.5 assists over 16 games—put him alongside Nikola Jokić and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Versatile on defense and in transition, he’s the X-factor for masking offensive flaws.
- Toumani Camara and Donovan Clingan (Frontcourt): Camara, a second-round gem from the Lillard trade, earned All-Defensive Second Team honors with elite wing defense. Clingan, the No. 7 pick in 2024, emerged late as a rookie and now steps into a bigger role post-Ayton. Their defensive potential, plus Holiday and Thybulle, could make Portland a top-10 unit.
- Jerami Grant (Forward): Still owed $102.6 million over three years, Grant’s trade value was limited by the second apron. He may come off the bench behind Avdija and Camara, creating an awkward fit for a former starter.
The lineup puzzle is real: Billups must balance youth development with wins. Portland’s defense (No. 4 post-All-Star at 110.4 points per 100 possessions) is a strength, but half-court creativity and shooting remain concerns. Opponents shot just 34% from deep in the second half last year—likely unsustainable.
Challenges in a Brutal West
The Western Conference is a gauntlet, with established powers like Denver, Oklahoma City, and Minnesota, plus rising teams like Houston and San Antonio. Portland’s 36 wins last year cleared a low 21.5 over/under, but replicating that amid tougher competition is tough. Spring basketball often deceives, as tanking foes inflate records. Without Lillard’s scoring and with Simons gone, the offense (111 points per 100 possessions, 22nd last year) needs internal leaps.
Betting Odds and Predictions
Sportsbooks set Portland’s win total at 34.5 (Over -102, Under -120 at FanDuel; slight variations elsewhere, like 35.5 at BetMGM). Championship odds are long at +70000, Western Conference +30000, and Northwest Division +25000. Playoff odds sit at +410.
Win-Loss Prediction: 33-49 (Under 34.5 wins). While the second-half surge and defensive identity provide hope, the West’s depth and Portland’s offensive limitations suggest regression. Henderson and Sharpe should improve, Avdija could shine, and Hansen adds intrigue, but without Lillard and with Holiday’s age showing, expect around 33-35 wins. The focus is progress—extending the play-in fight into April would be a win.
Playoffs? No, but close. Portland might hover around the 10th-12th seeds, potentially sneaking into the play-in if the young core gels and defense holds. However, missing out aligns with a patient rebuild. This season is about laying foundations for 2026-27, when Lillard returns and the vets’ contracts loom larger.
The Blazers have reasons for excitement: a defensive-minded roster, emerging stars, and renewed energy. But in the harsh West, patience is key. If Henderson proves he’s “him,” Portland’s trajectory brightens. For now, expect competitive grit without the postseason payoff.
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