The time has come for the Portland Trail Blazers to take a new path.
They have spent the past four seasons mired in mediocrity.
The first two of those were spent trying to figure out how to move beyond the Damian Lillard. The last two have been spent trying to navigate the post-Lillard era.
None of it has been pretty.
During that time span, the Trail Blazers have accumulated a stable of young talent through the lottery, savvy second-round picks, and trades: Shaedon Sharpe in the first round in 2022, Scoot Henderson in the first round in 2023, Tounami Camara in the Damian Lillard trade in 2023, Donovan Clingan in the first round in 2024, and Deni Avdija in a trade in 2024.
The problem is that no one on the team- either the coaching staff or the front office – appears to know how to develop that talent.
When that group is on the floor, the Trail Blazers are clearly a raw team that struggles with finishing at the rim and having a coherent defense plan. But you can see the drive and competitiveness lurking just below the surface as Henderson and Sharpe try to get past defenders, Clingan posts up, and Avidija and Camara operate around the perimeter.
However, those young players are on the floor, much less on the floor together, far too infrequently. There have been highlights, to be sure, such as Scoot Henderson’s 39-point outburst earlier this week. Still, all too often, they are stuck on the bench to play veterans like Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons (who, despite being in his seventh season, is just 25), and DeAndre Ayton.
Grant, who would probably be the third option on a good team, was constantly asked to be the team’s No. 1 offensive option, a role he was not well suited for until he found himself glued to the bench with a “facial contusion” with no eta on his return.
Simons has inexplicably regressed across the board this season. His efficiency, defensive efficiency, offensive efficiency, shooting percentages, and value over replacement-level players are all down from seasons past, with several approaching career lows. He has one more season left on his current deal and may still have value, at least as an upcoming expiring contract, but now is a bad time to have his numbers crater. He is still starting but is probably better suited to a 6th man role where he can provide scoring off the bench while Sharpe or Henderson gets a break.
Ayton, the centerpiece of the Lillard trade, has never found the next level in his game. When he doesn’t have the ball in his hands, he doesn’t appear to know what to do with himself, and the team usually winds up playing 4-on-5 on defense as he wanders back.
And yet, the Trail Blazers keep trying to shove square pegs into round holes by constantly putting players in a position to fail.
The team essentially has three offensive looks: Option 1, which involves the post coming up and setting a screen for the guard, bringing the ball up the floor around the top of the arc. The guard will drive to the basket or hand off to the post for a give-and-go. Option 2 looks similar, except the post comes to the free throw line while a forward will flash from the low block to the three-point line for a handoff pass. Option 3 is just having the point guard run an isolation play against the entire defense while the other four players stand rooted to their spots on the floor.
None of them work consistently. Usually, the posts are left stranded at the three-point line, the guards drive against four defenders, and few players on the roster can consistently finish at the rim or create an off-the-ball movement to get open looks at the three-point line.
The coaching staff must implement an actual offensive system, and the Trail Blazers don’t appear to have one.
The same holds true on defense. Fixing the team’s defense was reportedly the entire reason coach Chauncey Billups was brought on board in the first place. Instead, the team’s defense is worse than ever. The team only has three true defenders who play with any consistency. Camara can lock down anyone, Clingan is a game changer in the key but lacks the speed to operate outside of it, and Avdija is quick enough and coordinated enough to shut down passing lanes. While playing defense, most of the rest of the team exists somewhere on the spectrum of either being completely uninterested in participating (Ayton) or unaware of where the player they should be guarding has gone (Henderson).
To be clear, the blame for that doesn’t fall entirely on the players. It’s on the coaching staff to put players in a position to succeed and on the front office to get players who can be put in a position to succeed and ensure those players get on the floor. The only thing the Trail Blazers consistently do is find a way to do either.
As a team that is more focused on draft position than winning, it’s okay for the Trail Blazers not to be good at offense or not be good at defense. Where that rope ends, though, is that they are bad at both and never show any real signs of growth at either end. A bad team can improve at defense and still routinely get beaten; they can show improvement at offensive fundamentals and still get beaten. The issue is that the Trail Blazers usually get beaten while showing no improvement or willingness to let players improve.
If the Portland Trail Blazers are going to find their way out of their current mediocrity, they are going to have to put the right players on the floor and give them the right tools and coaching to learn how to succeed.
To date, the franchise hasn’t shown it’s capable of doing that.
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