Heading into the most important stretch of their season, Seattle is 5-5 and appears to be on a good path. Not necessarily the right path, but at least it’s not the wrong one any longer.
As recently as three weeks ago, Seattle was playing like one of the worst teams in the league. They had no identity on either side of the ball, their discipline and coaching were being called into question, and there were not any signs they would turn it around. They had just been blown out by Buffalo on their home field and were playing like a team looking for answers without knowing the questions.
Things didn’t get much better the following week, as they lost in overtime to the Rams, this time at home as well. They went into their bye week with a losing record, and the ship was veering off course at an alarming pace.
On November 1st, their defense was #23 in yards and #20 in points.
They were 17th in passing yards and 29th in rushing yards. They had more than 50 missed tackles and allowed a score on 36% of their drives. Seattle had just five interceptions and only forced a turnover on 8% of their drives. They had one of the lowest rates of depth per target but were among the league’s worst in allowing yards after the catch.
Heading into their final game of November, they are slowly moving their way back to the middle of the pack in missed tackles—coming in at 13th most. They still have one of the lowest depth of target rates in the league. They are 11th in QB pressure rate and 21st in blitz percentage. They are winning without sending extra defenders to pressure the quarterback and actually tackling, and that’s huge.
Many teams would solve their tackling problem by sending more defenders after the QB to try and stop the pass from even being completed, but Seattle fixed the problem the right way. They didn’t just slap a band-aid over the issue and hoped people would look away; they acknowledged and addressed the issue, and the results show they are progressing. They still need to work on sacks, as they are near the bottom of the league.
With just 7 interceptions on the season, their 8% turnover rate is not getting any better, but if they can find a way to keep rushing the quarterback and tackling, sooner or later, those big plays on defense will come, whether it’s in sacks or picks.
They moved up three spots in total defense, standing at #20, and moved up four spots in points to #16. Don’t look now, but Seattle is just a couple of good games away from moving into the league’s top half. They moved up two spots to 15th in passing yards and moved a whopping seven spots in rushing yards to 22nd.
This past Sunday, they took on the San Francisco 49ers on the road, with both teams needing a win to boost their postseason chances. The 49ers were averaging 24 points a game and had only scored fewer than 18 points once this season, in a loss to Minnesota in week 2. Seattle held them to that same season low of 17 last Sunday, forcing one interception and recording three sacks.
They forced San Francisco to punt three times, outgained them in total offense, scored three more points, had the same amount of turnovers (1), and only gave up one more sack. It wasn’t a statement win, but it was very important. It was their first win against their divisional rival in more than two seasons, and they kept their season on track.
Entering week 12, Seattle hosts Arizona in their third division matchup of the season. The Cardinals are in first place in the NFC West, but a loss to Seattle would put the lead back up for grabs. The Cardinals have two division wins so far, a third would give them a two game lead in the race, but a loss this weekend would put them neck in neck with Seattle and matching records.
Seattle is finally healthy and playing like you would expect a good team to play, but there is work to be done on offense if they want to make a case for the playoffs.
The Seahawks are no longer the top team in passing yards, ranking fourth now, and still struggle to score through the air, ranking 24th. Giveaways are a big issue, as they have a 1:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. They are 14th in total yards, 29th in rushing yards, and an abysmal 4th in penalties. They score on 35% of their drives, turn the ball over on 11% of their drives, and are 19th in scoring offense.
Nobody can move the ball between the 20s like this team can, but they leave points on the board or give the ball back to the other team 65% of the time. The best offenses are hovering around a 50% scoring rate; Seattle needs to get to that level if they want to be capable of competing with the best teams in the league. Seattle is 4th in passing yards and just 29th in passing touchdowns. They are 8th in rushing scores, which helps their overall average, but they are just 29th in rushing yards and 29th in rushing attempts, so aside from some plunges from short yardage, they are struggling to move the ball on the ground.
Seattle closes out November with a game against the Cardinals at home and then travels to face the Jets for their first game in December. After those two games, they will only have five games left and will need to go something like 5-2 over this stretch if they want to make it in the NFC; I don’t know how many 9-8 teams are getting in the playoffs or if you want to risk being left out in a crowded division with all four teams fighting for one of the seven spots and four of them going to division winners leaving just three possible spots for any team that doesn’t win their division.
Can Seattle prove it is out of its rut and ready to compete for a playoff spot? We are going to find out; they are running out of chances to make their case.
Six of their final seven games are conference opponents; three are division opponents. They don’t want to lose any of those games, but if they have to lose any of them, they can’t lose the wrong ones. Divisional games have to be wins at this point, and conference games should be a premium matchup for them as well. If they need to lose one game, it should be the Jets, as they are not a conference or division rival, and if they need to lose a second game, there really isn’t a good time for it. Green Bay and Minnesota are also fighting for wild card spots and have records similar to Seattle’s.
The Seahawks need to focus, win as many games as possible, and avoid leaving their fate to chance and the kindness of other teams.
It’s time to get the train back on the track, charge the mountain, and prove they belong in the contender conversation.
