A tough road loss to Washington will be questioned for years if the Ducks’ season ends disappointingly, but Oregon controls their destiny in the PAC-12—and in the CFP race, checking in at No. 8 in the last meaningful AP Poll before the first CFP rankings of the year.
With five weeks’ worth of regular season games left, Washington unsurprisingly tops the PAC-12, while USC checks in at 2nd and the Ducks are third. USC only sits ahead by virtue of playing an extra game, though: the Ducks have already had their bye, while USC will take theirs this weekend. Knotted up with the Ducks at 3-1 in conference play are Oregon State and Utah, who are nationally ranked No. 11 and No. 13, respectively.
Oregon will find it tough to catch up with Washington; the Huskies would have to lose two more games than the Ducks the rest of the way, which is unlikely to happen despite a brutal remaining schedule that includes games against USC, Utah, Oregon State, and a not-to-be-overlooked Washington State. However, the Ducks could easily take USC’s place as the second team in the conference championship.
It begins with this weekend’s game at No. 13 Utah, which could be the toughest matchup left on the Ducks’ schedule (Oregon will play Oregon State in Eugene). Utah is in the midst of a surprising 6-1 season despite star quarterback Cameron Rising not having played a game all year (and who was recently announced to be out for the season because of his injury) and despite not hitting 25 points in their first four Power 5 games. Yet a stingy defense that ranks 6th in the country in rushing yards allowed per game and 14th in total yards allowed per game (per ESPN) has helped them keep winning, including a thriller to take down USC last week. Their offense has also turned things around somewhat in the previous two games, per College Football Reference, racking up 463.5 per game compared to just 266 offensive yards per game in their first four Power 5 games.
Utah beat Oregon twice in 2021 by a combined score of 76-17 en route to a PAC-12 championship. In 2022, then-No. 12 Oregon picked off Rising three times and forced two fourth-down stops deep in Ducks territory to beat then-No. 10 Utah, 20-17. The Utah of this season is not the Utah that has won the last two PAC-12 championships, but history suggests the Ducks could be in for a tough game. They’ll likely need another dazzling game from Bo Nix, coupled with the kind of strong defensive performance they’ve grown accustomed to this year, to return home with their season goals intact.
Oregon can all but eliminate Utah from the PAC-12 race with a win while leapfrogging USC for second place in the conference due to USC’s loss to Utah (who would be the highest-placed common opponent) last week. But should Oregon lose, they can all but say goodbye to their PAC-12 championship hopes.
The schedule does lighten up with a home game against a struggling California team. That’s immediately followed by a visit from USC, which could be the most volatile game on Oregon’s remaining schedule. There’s a world where USC is in full-on spiral mode by the time this once-highly anticipated matchup rolls around. But if USC rebounds after their bye and wins both their pre-Oregon games (a tough ask with Washington being one of those games), then the stakes will be high for a potential top-15 showdown with second place in the PAC-12 standings on the line for Oregon and first place on the line for USC. Still, regardless of how USC performs in the next few weeks, they remain a dangerous team with an advantage at the most important position.
Oregon plays Arizona State the week after for a much lighter matchup—although you can’t take any game lightly (just ask Washington after last week’s showing against the Sun Devils). The road trip to Arizona State looks like the makings of a trap game, sandwiched by the USC game and the season finale against Oregon State. If Arizona State keeps the game close, psychology will probably be the reason more than anything.
Oregon-Oregon State could have a lot more national significance than usual, even if the Beavers drop a game versus Washington. If Oregon wins all of the games leading up to the matchup, and Oregon State wins all of their games except for perhaps against Washington, then you can guarantee that a spot in the PAC-12 championship game will hinge on the winner of the rivalry. The Ducks have home-field advantage against the Beavers, so they have an extra leg up.
The Ducks will find it tough to win out the rest of the way, with virtual PAC-12 elimination games potentially making up more than half of the remaining schedule. But that could be said of any of the PAC-12 contenders at this stage. A Ducks win this weekend against Utah would solidify their place above the teams jockeying for position behind Washington. Oregon would still need to beat USC and OSU and make sure they don’t unexpectedly slip up against Cal or ASU, but the path gets significantly easier with a win in Salt Lake City this weekend (and near impossible with a loss).
Is Oregon-Utah the Game of the Year, Part II for the Ducks? We’ll find out when the teams kick off at 12:30 PM this Saturday.
