Even though the Seattle Mariners posted an 88-74 record this year, they finished third in the division, narrowly missing out on the playoffs a year removed from making it for the first time since 2001. The team played well, but with the Houston Astros and the rejuvenated Texas Rangers in your division, losing six out of your last ten games could be more helpful going into the season’s final days. Looking ahead to 2024, the Mariners aren’t losing many players and are set up great for the next playoff run. Let’s look at what the Mariners did well and what they can do to improve next year.
Pitching Staff Greatness: The Mariners did a couple of things right this season. The biggest area the Mariners succeeded in was their pitching. Going into the season, fans were slightly apprehensive because the staff was so young. George Kirby, Andres Munoz, and Logan Gilbert were the young guns with high potential, and they did not disappoint. George Kirby had the best FIP of the rotation, slotting in at 3.35, which put him in the top 15 of the league. Logan Gilbert possessed one of the best breaking balls in the league, finishing in the 95th percentile of all qualified pitchers. While Andres Munoz started the season hurt, his Statcast page is red (which is a good thing), highlighted by the 99th percentile whiff percentage and the 98th percentile in average fastball velocity (98.9 mph). Overall, the Mariners were second in team FIP, strikeouts per walks, and third in team ERA. The pitching staff did their job this year.
Replacing Teoscar: Teoscar Hernandez is set to be a free agent this offseason, and the Mariners need to replace his offense. Hernandez finished the year with 26 home runs on a .740 On Base Plus Slugging (OPS). Looking at free agency, Teoscar Hernandez is projected to get a contract of around $16.5 million annually. Some great outfielders are on the market, like Joc Pederson, Harrison Bader, and Lourdes Gurriel, but I wouldn’t go after this crew. Pederson can only hit one side of the plate and is slated to make just as much as Teoscar. Bader’s bat needs to be better to replace Hernandez’s offensive production. Gurriel is also slated to make about the same amount as Joc and Teoscar. Enter Adam Duvall. I’ll admit, I’ve been on the Adam Duvall train for a while. It started back watching him with the Cincinnati Reds, where I loved how he could be a Gold Glove-caliber outfielder while smacking 33 home runs. He finally won that Gold Glove in 2021 with the championship Atlanta Braves, the same year he hit 38 home runs. With Boston this past year, he spent some time on the IL, hindering his numbers, but he still hit 21 homers in 91 games. His AAV for next year is slated to be around $6.5 million, which is a bargain for the offensive output you can get on the free-agent market.
Tom Murphy’s Return: The next area I would focus on would be catcher, specifically Tom Murphy. Murphy is set to be an unrestricted free agent next year, and I’m hoping the Mariners bring him back. Cal Raleigh has the starting job easily, but Murphy brings a thump of a bat while being able to fill in at catcher every third game. The market for catchers in this free agency is a weird batch of players. You have Gary Sanchez, who made a resurgence playing with the Padres this year. Thanks to his improved defense and home run power, he’s expected to command starter-level money this offseason. Then, you have Yasmani Grandal, whose career took a nose dive in 2022 and didn’t improve this past year. Grandal has posted a .611 OPS with a combined -2.1 WAR and an atrocious -44 Runs Better Than Average in the last two years. There are other serviceable catchers like Victor Caratini and Austin Hedges, but Murphy is a better hitter than both players.
As I mentioned, the Mariners are set up perfectly for 2024. They’re not going to lose many players to free agency, have budding young stars Logan Gilbert and George Kirby bolstering their pitching staff, and perhaps the next 40/40 player in Mariners history (Julio Rodriguez) in their starting nine. Texas has many free agents coming up, and the Astros dynasty is on the latter end of their reign, leaving Seattle licking their chops to take over the AL West for the first time since that storied 2001 season.
