The 2025 American League Championship Series is set to deliver a compelling clash between two franchises born in the same year but chasing vastly different playoff legacies. The top-seeded Toronto Blue Jays (94-68), fresh off dispatching the New York Yankees in four games, will host the second-seeded Seattle Mariners (90-72), who survived a grueling 15-inning Game 5 thriller against the Detroit Tigers on Friday night. This best-of-seven series kicks off Sunday at Rogers Centre, pitting two 1977 expansion teams against each other in a rematch of their 2022 Wild Card Series, where the Mariners swept the Blue Jays in Toronto.
For the Blue Jays, this marks their first ALCS appearance since 2016, and they’re aiming to end a World Series drought dating back to their back-to-back titles in 1992-93. The Mariners, meanwhile, are in the ALCS for the first time since 2001 and are still seeking their inaugural pennant in franchise history. As Jerry Dipoto, Seattle’s president of baseball operations, noted post-ALDS, the team is built on pitching depth and late-season additions like Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor. Toronto, led by an October breakout from Vladimir Guerrero Jr., countered with a dominant offense that scored 34 runs against the Yankees.
With home-field advantage in Toronto’s favor and a clash of styles—Toronto’s contact-heavy lineup versus Seattle’s power and pitching—this series could go the distance. Here’s a full preview, including key matchups, storylines, odds, and our prediction.
How They Got Here
The Blue Jays dominated the AL East and earned a bye in the Wild Card round before overwhelming the Yankees in the ALDS. Guerrero Jr. was the star, hitting .529 with three homers, a grand slam (Toronto’s first playoff slam), and nine RBIs in four games. Rookie Trey Yesavage dazzled in his postseason debut, striking out 11 Yankees over 5 1/3 no-hit innings in Game 2, setting a franchise record. Kevin Gausman and the bullpen held New York to a 3.64 ERA over the series, while the offense thrived at home, scoring 23 runs in two games at Rogers Centre.
Seattle’s path was more arduous. After clinching the AL West on a late surge, they outlasted Detroit in a series defined by pitching and drama. Game 5 was the longest winner-take-all playoff game ever, ending 3-2 in 15 innings on Jorge Polanco’s walk-off single. Cal Raleigh, the AL home run king with 60 dingers, powered the offense, while starters George Kirby, Luis Castillo, and Logan Gilbert delivered a combined 1.50 ERA. The Mariners’ deadline acquisitions—Naylor (.295 average) and Suárez (49 homers)—added depth, but the bullpen was taxed in the marathon finale.
Regular-season head-to-head: Toronto won 4-2, including a May sweep in Seattle, but the Mariners took two of three in Toronto in April.
Series Schedule (All Times ET)
- Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 12 – Mariners at Blue Jays, 8:03 p.m. (FOX)
- Game 2: Monday, Oct. 13 – Mariners at Blue Jays, 4:38 p.m. or 5:03 p.m. (FOX/FS1)
- Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 15 – Blue Jays at Mariners, TBD (FOX/FS1)
- Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 16 – Blue Jays at Mariners, TBD (FOX/FS1)
- Game 5*: Friday, Oct. 17 – Blue Jays at Mariners, TBD (FOX/FS1)
- Game 6*: Sunday, Oct. 19 – Mariners at Blue Jays, TBD (FOX/FS1)
- Game 7*: Monday, Oct. 20 – Mariners at Blue Jays, TBD (FOX/FS1)
*If necessary
The series shifts to Seattle’s T-Mobile Park for Games 3-5, where the Mariners went 51-30 at home. Toronto was 54-27 at Rogers Centre, where they’ve scored the third-most runs in MLB this season (431).
Key Matchups and Storylines
Pitching Rotations: Seattle boasts one of MLB’s deepest staffs (3.87 ERA, third in AL), but Game 5’s 15-inning epic forced Castillo and Gilbert into relief roles, leaving questions about fatigue. Kirby is lined up for Game 3, and Bryan Woo (15-7, 2.94 ERA) could return from pectoral inflammation, potentially starting mid-series. Without Woo early, the Mariners might lean on Bryce Miller or even Emerson Hancock. Andrés Muñoz (1.73 ERA, 38 saves) anchors a bullpen that could be Seattle’s edge.
Toronto counters with Gausman (10-11, 3.59 ERA) or Yesavage (1-0, 3.21 ERA) for Game 1—both on extra rest. Yesavage’s splitter (69% whiff rate) tortured the Yankees, and Gausman has revenge motivation from the 2022 Wild Card loss. Shane Bieber struggled in ALDS Game 3, so the Jays must decide on a fourth starter: Max Scherzer (playoff pedigree but rough September) or Chris Bassitt (back from IL). Toronto’s bullpen (3.98 ERA) features lefties like Brendon Little (2.79 September ERA) but lacks Seattle’s closing punch.
Offenses: Toronto led MLB in contact rate and batting average (.265), striking out the least (1,099 times). Guerrero Jr. (.292/.381/.467, 30 HR) has shed his playoff struggles, while George Springer (.307, 32 HR) and Ernie Clement provide depth. They exploit defenses—Seattle ranked fifth-worst in fielding run value (-29).
Seattle counters with power (238 HR, third in MLB), led by Raleigh (.247/.359/.589, 60 HR) and Rodríguez (.267, 32 HR). Naylor and Suárez add length, but the Mariners strike out often (1,446 times, second-most). Toronto’s contact could pressure Seattle’s shaky outfield defense (Randy Arozarena, Dominic Canzone), while Seattle’s homers thrive in September splits.
Injuries and X-Factors: Bo Bichette (knee) could return for Toronto after missing 24 games—he’s jogging and hitting live pitching. For Seattle, Woo’s status is key; without him, creativity is needed for early games.
X-Factors: Guerrero Jr. for Toronto (must sustain October heat without Yankee animosity). For Seattle, Naylor (.314 career at Rogers Centre, Canadian native) could thrive in high-leverage spots.
Other Notes: Seattle fans shed “demons” with their first home playoff win in 24 years. Toronto has national support, as Guerrero Jr. said: “We have an entire country behind us.” Western Canadian fans might invade T-Mobile Park, but playoff pricing could favor locals.
Betting Odds (via DraftKings)
- Series Odds: Blue Jays -115, Mariners -105 (Toronto slight favorite due to home field and rest).
- Game 1: Blue Jays -164 ML, Mariners +134; Run Line: Blue Jays -1.5 (+138); Total: 7.5 (O/U -110).
- Correct Score Odds: Blue Jays in 6 (+425) leads, followed by Mariners in 7 (+450).
- World Series Odds: Dodgers +130 favorites; Mariners +320, Blue Jays +340 (oddsmakers see Seattle as a slight edge over Toronto in a potential Fall Classic).
Toronto’s rest advantage (four days off) contrasts Seattle’s emotional high but taxed arms. Power has won 76% of series over the last five postseasons; contact, only 43%.
Prediction
This series feels like a toss-up, with Toronto’s home dominance and contact offense neutralizing Seattle’s power in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. However, the Mariners’ pitching depth—especially if Woo returns—and bullpen edge could shine in a long series. Expect drama, but the Blue Jays’ momentum from Guerrero Jr.’s breakout and Yesavage’s emergence tips the scales.
Mariners in 7: Seattle weathers Toronto’s early offensive surge, capitalizes on their pitching depth to steal a game in Toronto, and leans on their power bats to take control in Seattle. The series returns to Rogers Centre, where Cal Raleigh’s clutch homer seals it. Raleigh earns series MVP with a multi-homer, high-RBI performance.
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